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     Copied from the app as written. Harbor & Pine is a made-up business. The unit-economics table shows the row we saw after the fix. -->
# Business plan: Harbor & Pine

**Small-batch soy candles, Portland, Oregon · Launch plan · Oct 2026**

Tags: [F] = your research fact · [A] = assumption to verify

## Summary
Launch with one tight line of three 8–9 oz soy candles at $30, sold at Portland markets first and online from week 3. Spend the $3,000 on first-batch inventory and getting in front of buyers, then decide on scale-up at day 30 using real sell-through.

## Customer
- **Who:** Portland adults 25–45 buying gifts and home scent for themselves; they value local, small-batch, and well-made goods. [A]
- **Where we reach them:** farmers and makers markets, then your website and email list. [A]
- **Market context:** US scented candles are a roughly $1.4–$2.4B market (2025, analyst estimates) [F]. That range is national and too broad to plan around. The plan depends on local demand, not the national number.

## Offer
- Hand-poured soy candles, 8–9 oz, in a reusable or recyclable vessel. [A]
- Three signature scents at launch, named after Portland places or Oregon landscapes. [A]
- Gift-ready packaging included in the price. [A]

## Price
- **Launch price: $30.** Your range is $28–$34 [F].
- Five online competitors sell 8–9 oz candles at $25–$44 [F]. $30 sits in the lower-middle of that band: below premium pricing, above the cheapest options.
- Keep one price across markets and online to avoid confusion. [A]
- **Unit economics** (first batch: $1,000 materials [A]; gross margin = materials only, before fees, shipping, and labor):

| Batch yield | Materials per candle | Gross profit per candle at $30 | Gross margin at $30 | Revenue if sold out | Gross profit if sold out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60 candles | $1,000 ÷ 60 = $16.67 | $30 − $16.67 = $13.33 | $13.33 ÷ $30 = 44% | 60 × $30 = $1,800 | $1,800 − $1,000 = $800 |

First version, before we asked for the fix: "Target unit economics: ~$9 materials per candle, about 70% gross margin at $30. [A]"

## Channels
| Channel | Role | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Local markets (Portland) | Cash sales, feedback, first reviews | Booth fees and tent/display are fixed costs. [A] |
| Own website + email list | Repeat and gift orders | Start collecting emails at the first market. [A] |
| Local retail (consignment) | Later, after day 60 | Only once you have proven sell-through. [A] |

## Budget ($3,000)
| Item | Amount |
|---|---|
| First batch materials (wax, wicks, fragrance, vessels) | $1,000 |
| Labels and packaging | $500 |
| Market fees, booth, display | $600 |
| Website and shipping supplies | $500 |
| Marketing (samples, small paid tests) | $300 |
| Reserve | $100 |
| **Total** | **$3,000** |

All line items are [A] estimates.

## First 30 days
- **Week 1:** Lock three scents, label design, and $30 price. Set up website and payments. Order materials.
- **Week 2:** Pour first batch (~60–80 candles). Soy candles need about 1–2 weeks to cure before the scent is at full strength, so don't sell them yet. [F, general practice]
- **Week 3:** First two Portland markets. Sample, collect emails, record feedback. Open the website.
- **Week 4:** Email launch to your list. Run one or two small paid tests. Check reviews and reorder points.
- **Day 30 goal:** Sell 50+ candles and reach 100 email subscribers. [A]

## Risks
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Slow cure delays first sales | Cash tied up for weeks | Pour early in week 2; start with pre-orders. |
| Weak market turnout or bad weather | Low sales, fixed booth cost | Pick markets with proven foot traffic; keep 1 backup market. |
| Competitor price cuts | Margin pressure | Compete on local story and gift packaging, not price. |
| Shipping breakage | Refunds and bad reviews | Use proper inserts; ship only in tested boxes. |
| Supplier price or availability swings | Margin squeeze | Keep 2 wax and fragrance suppliers; buy one batch at a time. |
| Labeling or sales-tax compliance | Fines or forced relabeling | Confirm fragrance and safety labeling rules; check sales-tax rules for out-of-state online orders. [A] |

## Recommendation
Go with the plan: three scents, $30, markets first, online from week 3. Use the day-30 numbers as the decision gate. If at least 70% of the first batch sells, reorder and test $32–$34 on the website. If not, fix the scents or the market mix before spending more.